资源依赖度与经济增长的非线性关系——基于国际动态面板数据的系统GMM估计

The Non-linear Relationship Between Resource Dependence and Economic Growth——An Empirical Research Based on National Level Panel Data

文章尝试从新的视角出发研究资源依赖度与经济增长的非线性关系,以90个国家1990—2012年的动态面板数据,用系统GMM方法作实证检验,研究表明,在国际层面上资源依赖度与经济增长呈现倒U型关系。当经济过度依赖资源产业以致超过临界点后,继续扩大资源产业便会对经济增长产生"诅咒"效应。就目前而言,大多数国家并未超过该临界值,资源开发活动不会制约经济增长,但这一"诅咒"效应的切实存在,仍然向各国提供了足够的警示意义。

In this paper a new perspective is developed to explore the nonlinear relationship between resources and economic growth. Based on the panel data of 90 countries from 1990-2012, an empirical test is done using system GMM method, trying to find out the inverted U-shape relationship between resource dependence and＇ economic growth, which means that if a country depends on resource to a certain extent, the resource will curse the economic growth. In our sample, few countries exceed the threshold value, indicating that for most countries resource production does not deteriorate the economy. Still, maintaining a reasonable industrial structure and being cautious about the resource curse is an important issue to consider for many countries.