基于PCA的黄金期货价格短期波动影响因素研究

Study on influence factors of the short-term price fluctuation of gold futures based on PCA

黄金具有商品属性和金融属性,价格波动频繁且剧烈。黄金期货市场可以为黄金生产企业、加工企业及投资者提供一个规避黄金价格波动的平台。由于中国黄金期货市场尚待成熟,容易受到其他相关市场的影响,从而使其有效性得不到充分发挥。该文创新性地对影响黄金期货价格短期波动的因素进行了主成分分析以得到主要影响因素,并根据这些主要影响因素给出了加强中国黄金期货市场有效性的建议。

Gold has the attributes of goods and finance, the price of gold fluctuates frequently and violently. Gold futures market can provide gold producers, processors and investors a platform to avoid the fluctuation of gold price China＇s gold futures market is not yet mature and vulnerable to the impact of other relevant markets, so its effectiveness cannot get sufficient play. The paper conducts principal component analysis on the factors which significantly affect the short-term volatility of gold futures price to get the main factors innovatively, and offers the suggestion about enhancing the effectiveness of China＇s gold futures market according to these main factors.