中美贸易的经济溢出效应及碳泄漏研究

Study on the Effect of Sino-US Trade on Global Economic Growth and Carbon Leakage

国际贸易在促进经济增长的同时也具有复杂的环境影响。本文用实证研究方法,以中美贸易为例,分析了2002-2011年中美贸易所产生的经济溢出和碳泄漏。研究结果表明,中美贸易对中美双方的经济增长均有显著的促进作用,但同时也是促进世界碳排放增长的重要因素。中美贸易显著地提高了全球的经济效率,同时损失了一定的环境效率。2002-2011年,中美贸易使世界经济总量增加了302.05亿美元;与此同时中美贸易导致的全球碳排放额外增加量也逐年上升,由78.1 MMTCO2上升到401.96 MMTCO2,十年间累计增加了全球碳排放3 464.78 MMTCO2。中美贸易所导致的全球碳排放效率损失正呈现出越来越大的趋势。2002年中美贸易每t碳泄漏的经济溢出量为0.28美元,2011年这一数值下降到0.08美元,下降了70%以上。贸易在全球化过程中扮演着多重角色,在未来的政策设计中,既要看到贸易对经济增长的促进作用,也需要对贸易中的碳泄漏给予额外的关注。

While international trade can promote economic growth, it also has a complex effect on the environment. This empirical paper analyzed the effect of Sino-US trade on economic spillover and carbon leakage from 2002 to 2011. The results show that Sino-US trade significantly promotes economic growth of both China and the U. S. and globally, and significantly increases global carbon emissions. During the period of 2002 and 2011, Sino-US trade increased the total world economy by 30. 205 billion US dollars. At the same time, global carbon emissions increased from 78. 1 MMTCO2 in 2002 to 401. 96 MMTCO2 in 2011. Total additional global carbon emissions because of Sino-US trade were 3,464. 78 MMTCO2 from 2002 to 2011. Moreover, economic benefit per unit of additional carbon emissions in Sino-US trade decreased. The economic benefit per tonne of carbon leakage from Sino-US trade was 0. 28 US dollars in 2002 but dropped by 70 percent to 0. 08 US dollars in 2011. Since trade plays a significant and complex role in the process of globalization, policy makers must consider both the economic and environmental effects in future trade policy designs.