中部六省经济增长方式对区域碳排放的影响——基于Tapio脱钩模型、面板数据的滞后期工具变量法的研究

Impact of Economic Growth Pattern of the Six Provinces of Central China on Regional Carbon Emission:Based on the Tapio Model and Lag Instrumental Variable Analysis of Panel Data

本文综合运用Tapio脱钩模型、面板协整检验、滞后期工具变量法和碳排放峰值预测,使用1995-2012年的18年长面板数据,研究中部六省经济增长方式对区域碳排放的影响。研究思路是先用Tapio脱钩模型考察中部各省经济增长与碳排放总量、人均碳排放量和碳强度之间的关系,找到中部各省的个体差异和共性,接着检验经济增长与碳排放是否存在长期均衡,在确定两者存在长期均衡的基础上进一步运用省际面板数据和滞后期工具变量具体考察中部六省经济增长中产业结构、能源结构、城镇化水平、对外贸易和技术进步与碳排放总量和碳强度的关系,归纳经济增长方式对区域碳排放的影响,最后根据回归方程和中部六省的基础数据预测碳排放峰值的到来时间。得出中部六省经济增长对于化石能源的依赖程度经历了由弱到强再到弱的过程,经济增长方式经历了一个由集约到粗放再回到相对集约的过程;经济增长与碳排放之间存在协整关系,中部六省人均GDP增长对人均碳排放增长的贡献弹性还很大,即人均GDP每升高1%,碳排放总量会上升1.246 7%;中部六省存在碳排放和碳强度环境库兹涅茨曲线,火力发电对中部六省的碳排放和碳强度产生正的影响,前后两年间火力发电比例每提高1%,中部六省内碳排放量和碳强度将分别提高0.505 1%和0.370 3%,第二、第三产业的发展和技术进步有利于中部六省的碳减排工作,前后两年间的第二产业占GDP比重、第三产业占GDP比重和研发强度代表的技术进步每提高1%,中部六省碳排放量将会分别降低2.286 1%、3.845 3%和48.167 6%,碳强度将会分别下降1.919 4%、3.163 0%、48.996 4%,城镇化和地区开放程度对中部六省的碳排放影响不显著,中部六省经济增长方式对区域碳排放量和碳强度的影响是一致的;目前各省均已越过碳强度峰值,但还远未越过碳排放峰值。在经济"新常态"下,通过强化中部六省碳减排的协同合作和跨区域治理,打造中部碳交易市场和碳金融中心,调整产业结构、促进技术进步,积极发展低碳产业,中部六省很有可能提前在2030年前达到碳排放峰值。

This paper comprehensively used Tapio decoupling model, panel cointegration test, lag instrumental variable method as well as the predicted peak value of carbon emission. Based on the long-term panel data from 1995 to 2012, it analyzed the impact of economic growth pattern on carbon emission in the six provinces of Central China. The research approach is as follows：Firstly, it used Tapio decoupling model to observe the relationship between the economic growth and the total carbon emission load, the carbon emission load per capita as well as the carbon intensity in the central provinces and found the discrepancies and similarities of the provinces. Secondly, it tested whether there was a long-term equilibrium between the economic growth and the carbon emission,and after deciding on the long-term equilibrium, it further used the panel data of province and lag instrumental variable method to analyze the relationship between the economic growth concerning industrial structure, energy structure, urbanization level, foreign trade and R＆amp;D and the total carbon emission load and carbon intensity, then it summarized the impact of economic growth on the regional carbon emission. Lastly, based on the regression equation and the basic data of the six provinces of central China, it predicted when the peak value of carbon emission would come. This paper concluded that the dependency of the six provinces on fossil energy would experience a ‘weak-strong-weak’ process and the economic growth pattern would experience an‘intensive-extensive-relatively intensive’ process;there is a cointegration relationship between the economic growth and the carbon emission; for the six provinces, the elasticity of the growth of GDP per capita to the carbon emission load per capita is still large：if GDP per capita grows by 1%, the total carbon emission load grows by 1. 246 7%;there is an Environmental Kuznet Curve of carbon emission and the carbon intensity in the six provinces and thermal power generation has a positive impact on the carbon emission and carbon emission intensity：in two consecutive years, if the proportion of the thermal power generation increases by 1%, the carbon emission and the carbon intensity of the two years increase 0. 505 1% and 0. 370 3% respectively;the development and the technical progress of the secondary and tertiary industry can help the emission reduction in the provinces：in two consecutive years, if the proportions of the GDP of the secondary and tertiary industry as well as the technical progress of R＆amp;D intensity increase by 1%, the carbon emission load will decrease 2. 286 1%, 3. 845 3% as well as 48. 167 6% respectively and the carbon intensity will decrease 1. 919 4%, 3. 163 0%, 48. 996 4% respectively; in addition, the urbanization and the openness of a region have no significant impact on carbon emission;the economic growth pattern has a consistent impact on the regional carbon emission load and the carbon intensity; now, all the provinces have exceeded the peak value of carbon intensity but have not exceeded the peak value of carbon emission load; in this “new normal” economy, if the six provinces can strengthen the cooperation and the cross-regional governance, establish the carbon trading market of central China and the center of carbon finance, readjust the industrial structure and actively develop the low-carbon industry, it is quite likely that the peak value of carbon emission load of the six provinces of central China can come before 2030.