“民工荒”视角下的农民工工资决定机制及其影响研究

Study on the wage determining mechanism for migrant workers and its impacts when facing severe migrant worker shortage

"民工荒"背景下,识别农民工工资决定机制的新特征,将有助于把握农村剩余劳动力城镇化进程的新趋势。基于"进城务工人员生存状况调查"数据,分析人力资本和社交网络在农民工工资决定机制的作用,探讨其对农村人口转移决策和教育投资的影响。结果表明,人力资本和社交网络对农民工工资具有显著正向影响。但初、中等教育投资回报率明显偏低,初中教育不会对工资产生显著影响,高中教育仅能引起工资落入2 000元以下工资区间的概率减少7.0%;接受初、中等教育给带来的工资增幅低于其通过工作经验增加所带来的增幅,并将促使农村初中等教育适龄人口提前做出转移决策;社交网络则通过提高实现高工资就业的机会,进一步强化上述倾向。研究揭示了农民工工资决定机制的调整,存在着抑制农村人口教育投资、鼓励农村人口提前做出转移决策的消极影响,并据此提出相关对策建议。

Facing severe migrant worker shortage, identifying the new features of the wage determining mechanism for migrant workers would be helpful on forecasting the trend and the process of urbanization. Based on the data from ＂the survey of the living conditions of migrant workers＂, this paper tries to construct a determining mechanism on migrant workers＇ wage, to examine the impacts of human capital and social network on migrant workers＇ wage, and to discuss their influences on the migrating process and the education investment for rural population. Result shows that 1） the return of the investment on primary and secondary education is extremely low; 2） the impact of middle school education on migrant workers＇ wage is not remarkable; and 3） high school education can only lead to 7.0% decrease on the possibility of the monthly wage falling below 2000 Yuan. In addition, wage rising caused by＂leaming by doing＂ is higher than the impact from middle and high school education. Furtherly, social network also shows increasing positive impact on migrant workers＇ wage. This research finds that the adjustment of wage determining mechanism for migrant workers has a negative impact on the investment to rural education and also leads to early migrating of rural population. Suggestions to solve these problems are also discussed in the paper.