中国水火电产能与区域经济空间关联模式研究——基于“资源诅咒”视角探究

Study on the linkage between the hydroelectricity and thermal power production and the regional economies in China: Based on the“ Resource Curse” theory

明晰电力产能和经济联系是优化区域资源配置的关键。本文在阐述国内外资源诅咒演进和水电、火电产能本质的基础上,利用质心椭圆模型、相关性分析和构建综合诅咒系数等方法分别从时空格局动态、相关性和资源诅咒程度三方面探析我国水电、火电产能和经济规模的关联模式。研究发现,在空间格局上水电产能和经济空间系统明显错位,随时间推移偏离程度不断加深,而火电与经济空间系统较为接近;水电产能与经济生产整体上呈负相关性,即水电生产大省多为经济弱势区,包括广西、云南、青海、贵州等;而火电产能与区域经济则大致呈正相关态势,但也存在诸如内蒙古、山西等火电产能大省经济则较落后现象。以上分析显示我国确系存在电力产能的"资源诅咒"现象。研究进一步构建综合诅咒系数测算诅咒程度发现,宁夏为资源诅咒高危区,贵州、青海、甘肃、山西、内蒙古是资源诅咒严重区,安徽、河南、河北等9省处于轻度资源诅咒,上海、山东、天津等16省不存在资源诅咒现象。

Electricity is a significant driving force to regional economic growth in the background of low carbon economy. Therefore, identifying the relationship between electricity production and the regional economies is the key point to allocate resource efficiently. Based on the ＂Resource Curse＂ theory and applying the standard deviation ellipse and the correlation analysis methods and constructing curse indexes, this paper analyzed the correlation between the regional economies and hydroelectricity and thermal power production in China in 2000, 2006 and 2012. Results show that from spatial linkage perspective, the hydroelectricity production had negative correlation with the regional economy as a whole, reflecting that the higher hydroelectricity production the smaller the regional economy scale. In contrast, the thermal power has a positive correlation with the regional economy, but there are many big producing provinces of thermal power having smaller economy scales, too. This research also revealed that China does have the ＂Resource Curse＂ phenomena in hydroelectricity and thermal power production. By constructing and comparing curse indexes, this paper also found that Ningxia Province has the highest curse level, followed by Guizhou, Qinghai, Gansu, Shanxi, and Inner Mongolia. Nine provinces, including Anhui, Henan, Hebei, etc., have relatively low curse levels. Sixteen provinces, including Shanghai, Shandong, tianjin, etc. have no resource curse.