政府债务、李嘉图等价与货币政策效应——基于动态随机一般均衡模型(DSGE)的分析

Government Debt,Ricardian Equivalence and the Effect of Monetary Policy——An Analysis Based on DSGE Model

本文在DSGE模型中引入政府债券余额和期限变量,以及政府发债数量受市场利率影响的行为方程,由此分析政府债务因素对家庭最优消费决策、货币政策效应进而社会福利损失的影响。模型的稳态方程、脉冲响应和数值模拟分析结果表明:货币政策冲击对家庭消费的影响方向和程度除了与传统的"李嘉图等价"部分有关之外,还与由政府债券规模和期限决定的"非李嘉图等价"部分有关。另外,政府债券规模和期限的变化还将影响消费和劳动面对外部冲击时的波动幅度、进而社会福利损失的大小。

By introducing the government debt balance,term variable and the behavior equation that the quantity of government bonds is affected by market rate into DSGE model,this paper analyzes the effects of government debt factor on the optimal consumption decision-making of families,monetary policy effect and social welfare loss. The steady equation,impulse responses and numerical value simulation analysis results of the model show that: the direction and extent of the effects of monetary policy shock are not only related to the traditional ' Ricardian Equivalence' partially,but also they are related to 'Non-Ricardian Equivalence'decided by the scale and term of government bonds partially. In addition,the scale and term change of government bonds will also affect the fluctuation degree of consumption and labor when faced by external shock and the size of social welfare loss.