中国出口贸易利益究竟有多大——基于附加值贸易的估算

How Much Gain Can China Really Get from Export Trade?——The Estimate Based on Value Added Trade

全球价值链分工的快速发展,客观上要求以贸易附加值来刻画出口品内含的新增价值,从而更本质地揭示一国出口的真实贸易利益。本文利用WIOD提供的世界投入产出表,从出口贸易内含国内附加值视角,测算了1995-2011年中国出口贸易利益,结果表明:(1)伴随中国深度融入全球价值链分工,出口贸易内含的国内附加值在出口总额中所占比重虽有下降趋势,但总量却呈稳步上升态势,且数量巨大可观,出口贸易的总量经济效应十分显著;(2)从分行业层面来看,资本和知识密集型制造业出口对贸易利益的贡献较大且呈上升趋势,表明出口贸易利益来源结构进而所反映出的产业结构有所优化;(3)服务出口对贸易利益的贡献主要依赖于劳动密集型服务业,资本和知识密集型服务业,尤其是知识密集型服务业出口所做贡献极其有限。进一步深度融入全球价值链,以此推动附加值贸易高速增长,进而实现包括服务业在内的产业结构优化升级,都有着极为关键的意义。

The rapid development of the global value chain division objectively requires picturing the newly added value in exported products by the added value of trade and disclosing the real trade gains of a country's export more substantially. This paper calculates the export trade gains of China from 1995 to 2011 from the perspective of domestic added value implied in export trade by using the world input and output table provided by WIOD. The results show that:( 1) As China integrates into the global value chain division deeply,although the proportion of the domestic added value implied in export trade is on the decline,the total value is on the rise stably and the quantity is huge. The general economic effects of export trade are significant;( 2)Seen from the industrial level,the contribution of capital-intensive and knowledge-intensive manufacturing export to trade gains is relatively big and on the increase,which indicates the source structure of export trade gains and the industrial structure is optimized somewhat;( 3) The contribution of service export to trade gains mainly relies on labor-intensive service. The contribution of capital-intensive and knowledge-intensive service,especially knowledge-intensive service,to the export trade is very limited. Integrating into the global value chain more deeply is of great significance for promoting the rapid growth of added value trade and optimizing and upgrading the industrial structure that includes service.