税费改革对粮食生产的影响研究

Study on the Effects of Tax-Fee Reform on Grain Production

税费改革是继家庭承包责任制之后,中国农村最重要的一项改革举措,但这项改革对粮食生产的影响如何,现有文献尚缺乏专门和深入讨论。基于2000-2012年省级面板数据和动态面板的系统GMM方法,本文实证研究了税费改革对稻谷、小麦和玉米作物播种面积和单位面积产量的影响,考察农村税费改革的政策效果。研究发现:2000-2006年实施的税费改革对粮食生产具有显著的推动作用;分阶段研究表明,税费改革第一阶段的政策效果并不显著,税费改革对粮食生产的刺激作用主要体现在改革的第二阶段,且本文的研究结果对于替代性的减税指标具有稳健性;税费改革对粮食生产的推动作用在农业税全面废除的后续年份表现出较强的持续性。另外,总体来看财政支农政策、抗灾能力和化肥使用对粮食生产具有较为显著的正向影响,预期因素和产业结构因素的影响不显著。

Tax-fee reform is the most important reforming move in the countryside of China after the household responsibility system. But the documents available have not discussed the effects of the reform on grain production specially and deeply. Based on the provincial panel data from 2000 to 2012 and system generalized method of moments( SYS-GMM) of dynamic panel,this paper empirically studies the effects of tax-fee reform on the planting area and unit area output of rice,wheat and corn and inspects the policy results of rural tax-fee reform. The research finds that: the tax-fee reform carried out from 2000 to 2006 played a significant promoting role in grain production; the study of different stages indicates that the policy result of the first stage is not significant. The stimulating roles of tax-fee reform in grain production is mainly embodied in the second stage and the research results of this stage are robust for the substitutive tax-reducing indicators; the promoting roles of tax-fee reform in grain production are strongly persistent in the years after agricultural tax was completely annulled. In addition,the fiscal policy on supporting agriculture,anti-disaster capacity and fertilizer use have significant positive effects on grain production and the effects of expected factors and industrial structure factor on grain production are not significant.