气候变化和人类活动对永定河流域径流的影响

Effects of Climate Change and Human Activities on Runoff in the Yongding River Basin

利用线性回归法和Mann-Kendall趋势检验法对永定河1957—2000年的降水量、潜在蒸发能力和径流量进行了趋势分析,利用降雨—径流双累积曲线以及Pettitt变点检验找出了径流突变年份。在此基础上,运用水文敏感性分析方法计算了人类活动和气候变化对永定河径流变化的贡献程度。结果表明:1957年以来,永定河流域径流深呈显著下降趋势,其变化倾向率为-0.8 mm/a,径流突变点发生在1982年;与基准期相比,1982年之后的年平均径流深减少了20.0mm,其中人类活动使径流深减少了14.0 mm,占总减少量的70.0%。

Based on Yongding River basin as the research object, the temporal trends of annual precipitation,potential evapotranspiration and runoff were analyzed by using Mann - Kendall test and linear regression method during 1957--2000. Change point was detected by precipita- tion - runoff double cumulative curves method and Pettitt＇ s test. On this basis, quantitative analysis of the climate change and human activities on the influence of the Yongding River basin was analyzed by using the hydrological sensitivity analysis method. The results show that since 1957, the runoff of Yongding River presents a significant declining trend, the change tendency at a rate of 0.79 mm/a. Change point of runoff occurs in 1982 ,the average runoff decreases by 20.0 mm compared with the baseline period after 1982. The runoff decreases 14.0 mm which is affected by human activity, accounting for 70.0% of the total reduction.