河西走廊生态演变驱动力变化及未来趋势分析

Research on Driving Force Variation and Future Trend Analysis of Ecological Evolution of Hexi Corridor

通过探讨河西走廊区域气候和水资源变化、经济社会发展与水资源开发过程,根据河西走廊自然地理与生态特征,将其分为祁连山水源涵养区、绿洲区、荒漠区和尾闾湿地区,考虑自然条件和人类活动的发展演变趋势,分析预测了区域生态格局演变趋势。结果表明:河西走廊地区气温与降水量及出山径流量总体呈上升趋势;用水量伴随着土地开发规模增大而增大;考虑冰川融化速度加快,冰川变薄退缩使冰川融水径流量在未来先增大后减小,各内陆河流出山径流量总体保持平稳且有增大趋势,但2035年以后都将出现减少趋势。出山径流是河西走廊各内陆河流域生态演变的最基本要素,人类活动和自然条件变化是河西走廊生态演变的主要驱动力,合理规划配置水资源以应对出山径流未来变化是保障区域生态安全的关键。

In this article, we analyzed the process of climate change, water resources existence and usage, the economic and social development of the Hexi Corridor region. According to the natural geographical and ecological characteristics, the Hexi Corridor can be divided into 4 areas of Qilian mountain conservation area, oasis area, desert area and downstream wetland area. The trend of ecological evolution had been discussed while the trends of natural conditions and human activities had been analyzed. The annual average temperature, rainfall and runoff from the mountains have shown as growth trends. Accompanied with increasing scale of land use, the total amount of water use has shown increase. We infer that the runoff from mountains of the whole region will be increased before 2035 while decreased after as increased temperature will make the glaciers melting faster, which will make the runoff increased firstly and then decreased in the next 50 years. Runoff from the mountains is considered as basic element of ecological evolution of the Hexi Corridor region. Human activities and change of natural conditions are considered as the main driving force of ecological evolution while human activities are considered as the critical point gradually. Planning and allocating water resources to cope with the change of runoff from mountains is the key point of keeping regional ecological security.