港口物流与经济增长关系分析

Analysis of the Relationship Between Port Logistics and Fujian Economic Growth

以福建港口物流与经济增长之间的关系为研究对象,选取福建2004-2013年港口货物吞吐量、地区生产总值和三次产业生产总值等统计数据,运用回归分析方法与弹性系数法建立数学模型,运用灰色系统预测理论建立GM(1,1)预测模型,分析港口物流与腹地区域经济发展的关系.通过分析可知港口物流的发展能促进区域经济的增长,且对第二产业经济增长的拉动效应最大;目前GDP对港口物流发展仍缺乏弹性,未来港口货物吞吐量将持续快速增长,对区域经济增长的贡献将持续增大.

This paper takes the port logistics and economic growth in Fujian as the research object,and uses fujian port cargo throughput and GDP and three industrial GDP statistics from 2004 to 2013,for analysis of the correlation between port logistics and regional eco-nomic development.It uses regression analysis method and elastic coefficient method to establish mathematical model,and on the basis of the theory of grey system prediction,establishes GM（1,1）prediction model,and explores the contributions of the port logistics de-velopment to the regional economic growth.