交通资源环境承载力预警研究

Study on Early Warning of Traffic Resources and Environment Carrying Capacity

新常态下快速发展的综合交通运输对资源环境的胁迫作用日益明显,资源环境对交通运输的承载能力成为地区健康发展的重要衡量标准.在界定交通资源环境承载力概念的基础上,从资源承载力和生态环境承载力两个方面构建交通资源环境承载力指标体系.结合可拓学的模糊物元理论和信息论的熵理论,建立基于模糊物元的交通资源环境承载力的预警模型,并对长江经济带七省二市的交通资源环境承载力进行预警研究.实例结果表明,构建的交通资源环境承载力指标体系基本合理,模糊物元预警模型在资源环境承载力的预警研究中具有较强的适用性和可操作性.

The rapid development of integrated transportation in the new normal poses an increasing threat to environment and resources. The bearing capacity of environment and resources to transportation becomes a significant criterion to measure whether an area is developing healthily. Based on the definition of traffic resource environmental bearing capacity, a traffic resource and environmental bearing capacity index system is built from both resources carrying capacity and environmental carrying capacity aspects. Through combining fuzzy matter-element theory of extension theory with entropy theory, an early-warning model of traffic resource and environmental bearing capacity is established, this model is applied to study the traffic resources and environmental carrying capacity of Yangtze River economic belt （include seven provinces and two municipalities as well）. The results demonstrate that：The traffic resources and environmental carrying capacity index system is reasonable and the fuzzy matter-element model used in studying the early-warning of resources environmental bearing capacity is of sound applicability and operability.