交通事故下出行者非理性出行行为研究

Bounded-rational Travel Behavior under Traffic Incident

基于前景理论,研究交通事故下出行者路径选择行为规律.应用前景理论,考虑交通事故的发生概率,以出行者出行总花费时间作为出行效用,提出出行者路径选择的效用函数;然后通过分析出行者效用函数的分布规律,在出行效用连续随机分布的条件下,建立出行者感知效用模型.通过连续函数离散化方法构建出行者路径选择模型.通过一个算例,描述非理性条件下出行者选择行为,并分析交通事故的特征对效用值和选择结果的影响,说明感知效用为0的参考点并不是路径实际效用分布的期望值,而是比期望值小.

Based on prospect theory, travelers＇ route choice behavior under traffic incident is studied. First, utility function of travelers＇ route choice is proposed applying prospect theory, and total travel time is taken as utility, considering probability of traffic incident. Then, after analysis the distribution regularity of utility function, travelers＇ perception utility is modeled considering the utility obeying continuous random distribution. Through discrete series for continuous function, route choice model is built. A case study is conducted to describe the route choice behavior, and the influence of characteristic of traffic incident to utility and choice result are analyzed, which illustrates that the reference point when perception utility equals to zero is not the expectation of actual utility distribution, less than the expectation.