“十五”以来我国粮食生产力布局演变研究

Evolution of Grain Productivity Layout in China Since 10th 5-year Plan

分区域、分阶段对近年来我国粮食生产力布局的演变趋势进行了分析。研究表明,黄淮海区是我国最主要的粮食产区,一直保持着小麦主产区的重要地位,但玉米产量占全国比重明显下降;东北区和蒙新区正成为重要的新兴产区,特别是东北区逐步成为全国重要的稻谷和玉米产区,是全国粮食新增产量最主要的贡献区域;长江中下游区、华南区是重要的稻谷产区,但地位有所下降;西南区正成为全国重要的豆类和薯类产区。根据因素分解方法,2000—2013年全国粮食产量增加的最主要因素是单产效应,其次是规模效应,而结构效应则为负影响,且全国八大区域仅有东北区的结构效应为正。

The paper analyzed the evolution trends of grain productivity layout in China in recent years. Results showed that Huanghua- ihai Plain which was the main grain producing areas in China remained the most important wheat production status, but corn production ac- counted for the proportion decreased significantly ; the northeast region and Inner Mogolia and Xinjiang region had became the emerging im- portant regions, especially the northeast area had became a more and more important national rice and corn production area, which was the main contribution regional of new production of the national food ; Southern China District and the Yangtze River downstream area were im- portant rice producing areas, but the position had declined ; the southwest region was becoming important national beans and potato produ- cing areas. According to the method of factor decomposing, the main factor of national grain output of 2000--2013 years was increased yield effect, the second was the scale effect and structure effect was negative, and among the eight regions, only structure effect of northeast re-gion was positive.