摘要
为了科学合理地制定城市轨道交通需求管理政策,从轨道交通出行行为的角度,考虑了出行者的出行目的、时间、费用以及家庭年收入等因素,针对"上班上学"、"娱乐休闲"两种出行目的,以RP(Revealed Preference)调查数据为依托,分别使用时间参数服从均匀分布、正态分布、对数正态分布的Mixed Logit模型估计城市轨道交通出行时间价值。检验结果表明,时间参数服从对数正态分布的模型优于均匀分布和正态分布。其中,"上班上学"出行者的出行时间价值为10.39元/h,"娱乐休闲"出行者的出行时间价值为8.3元/h。通过研究城市轨道交通出行时间价值,可以更加准确地预测城市轨道交通需求管理政策对出行行为的影响。
To make a scientific traffic demand management policy for urban rail transit, from the angle of traveler＇s behavior, the main affecting factors like trip purpose, trip time, cost and household income are analyzed. The trip pur - pose of travelers is divided into two kinds： ＂working/school trip＂ and ＂entertainment trip＂, then base on revealed preference （RP） data, three Mixed Logit models of time param- eter that follows uniform distribution, normal distribution and logarithmic normal distribution separately are used to demarcate the value of time（VOT） for urban rail transit. The result shows that the VOT of ＂working/school trip＂ is 10.39 yuan per hour while ＂entertainment trip＂ is 8.3 yuan per hour. The calculation of VOT for urban rail transit can be used to forecast the impact of traffic demand management policy on traveler behavior more accurately.
出处
《城市轨道交通研究》
北大核心
2015年第5期29-32,37,共5页
Urban Mass Transit
