基于系统动力学的城市抗震防灾能力评估

Cities' Ability Evaluation of Earthquake Resistance and Hazardous Prevention Based on Systems Dynamic

为解决城市抗震防灾系统由于本身非线性、复杂性、动态发展性、自组织性等特点致使其难以量化评估的问题,实现依据地震时序的城市抗震防灾能力的动态评估,提出了基于系统动力学的城市抗震防灾能力动态评估模型.首先,回顾总结了城市抗震防灾相关研究的进展,总结了以往城市抗震防灾相关研究的不足;其次,给出了基于系统动力学城市抗震防灾能力评估研究的基本理论及框架;最后,运用系统动力学构建了震前重点片区的人员紧急疏散、震后薄弱区短期疏散及震后人员伤亡和救援3个模型,通过模型模拟为城市抗震防灾规划的具体实施提供了一定参考依据,且证实了系统动力在城市抗震防灾方面的实用性.

It is difficult to solve the problem of quantifying the cities＇ ability of earthquake resistance and hazardous prevention because it has the characteristics of nonlinear,complexity,dynamics and selforganizing.The paper proposes an evaluation model for cities＇ ability of earthquake resistance and hazardous prevention and achieves dynamic assessment based on system dynamics and earthquake time series.Firstly,the relevant research achievements on cities＇ ability of earthquake resistance and hazardous prevention were reviewed,and the disadvantages of previous achievements were summarized.Secondly,the basic theory and framework of the evaluation model was given based on system dynamics.Finally,three models that the emergency evacuation in key areas before the quake,the short-term evacuation in weak areas and the buried casualties and emergency rescue after the quake were conducted by using system dynamics.The models provide references for urban earthquake relief through simulations and the practicability of system dynamics on cities＇ earthquake resistance and hazardous prevention was verified.