摘要
为探究技术进步与能源消费的内在关系,本文采用面板门槛回归方法,结合1990—2012年我国省际面板数据构建面板门槛回归模型,以经济发展水平为门槛变量,实证研究了技术进步对能源消费的影响。研究显示:技术进步对能源消费的影响存在显著的"经济门槛效应",当经济发展水平高于门槛值时,虽然技术进步仍会促进能源的消耗,但其推动作用会逐步减弱,且东部地区技术进步对能源消费的促进作用要小于中西部地区。
Energy shortage has been a major obstacle of economic and social sustainable development in China. As an ef- fective means to reduce energy consumption, the effect of technical progress in theory is not consistent with reality. To ex- plore the relation between technical progress and energy consumption, a threshold model is constructed with panel data of 29 provincial units from 1990 to 2012. The results show that there is significant economic threshold effect of technical pro- gress on energy consumption. When economic level is higher than threshold value, although technical progress still promote the growth of energy consumption, the promoting effect is weakened. Due to the difference of China＇ s regional economic level, the promoting effect in east is smaller than middle and west.
出处
《科技管理研究》
CSSCI
北大核心
2015年第10期32-36,共5页
Science and Technology Management Research
基金
教育部人文社会科学研究青年基金项目"基于非均衡协调发展模式的碳减排机制优化与政策仿真"(13YJC790058)
常州大学科研基金项目"江苏省石油石化产业碳排放测度与碳减排机制研究"(2013)
常州大学科研基金项目"我国发展二氧化碳捕获与封存技术的障碍研究"(2013zmf13020068)
关键词
能源消费
技术进步
经济增长
门槛效应
energy consumption
technical progress
economic growth
threshold effect
