长江三角洲农村居民人均旅游花费合理模拟及空间差异研究

Study on the Rural Residents' Per-capita Tourist Consumption Simulation and Spatial Disparity in Yangtze River Delta

农村居民旅游市场日益成为我国旅游市场的中坚力量之一。采取计量经济学分析方法对长江三角洲地级以上城市(含地级)农村居民人均旅游花费及其空间差异进行了科学衡量,利用柯布-道格拉斯模型进行回归分析测算出的人均旅游花费模拟值平抑了调研数据的较大波动性,能够较好地反映区域内的差异及克服样本误差性。研究结论表明:⑴GDP的快速增长对农村居民旅游消费增长并未起到明显的作用;⑵农村居民人均旅游消费水平、平均消费倾向与社会经济发展水平紧密相关等。

The rural resident tourism market has increasingly become one of the backbones of the tourism market in China.This paper analyzed the rural residents’per-capita tourist consumption and spatial disparity of cities in Yangtze River Delta by using the econometric method.The digital simulation value about rural residents’per-capita tourist consumption which is measured by Cobb-Douglas model stabilizes the volatility of survey data,well reflects the regional differences and overcomes the sample error. The result shows that：⑴It has no obvious effect to rural residents＇tourism consumption growth under the rapid growth of GDP;⑵Rural residents’per-capita tourist consumption level and average propensity to consume are closely related to social and eco-nomic development level,etc.