安倍经济学的理论基础及其面临的挑战

The Theoretical Basis of Abenomics and Challenges It Faces

2012年安倍内阁建立后,陆续实施了一系列经济政策,被称为安倍经济学。其内容包括大胆的宽松货币政策、机动的财政政策和经济增长战略。目前实施的政策主体是货币政策和财政政策,增长政策处于附属地位,从总体上看安倍经济学本质上还是属于新古典综合的范畴。安倍内阁上台两年多来,日本政府实施的经济政策取得了一定的效果,但主要集中在前期实施的需求管理政策上。从安倍政策体系的内部结构看,无论是短期政策,还是长期政策,以及它们之间的关系上,都是存在着内在的矛盾,面临着严峻的挑战,2014年第二季度后的经济衰退就集中地表现了这一特点。在经济增长战略方面,安倍经济学更是面临着潜在经济增长率下降、人口减少等经济内在结构矛盾的阻碍。

After the establishment of Abe Cabinet in 2012, a series of economic policy, known as Abenomics, has been implemented. It is a combination of bold monetary policy, flexible fiscal policy and economic growth strategy. In general, the nature of Abenomics is not beyond the scope of neo-classical synthesis. In the past two years, the economic growth strategy implemented has achieved certain results, but it is mainly concentrated on the poli- cy of demand management. Whether it is short term or long term policy, inherent contra- dictions exist in terms of the internal structure of Abe^s policy. After the second quarter in 2014, the economic recession triggered by increasing the consumption tax is a result of that. As for the economic growth strategy, it faces the impediment of internal structural contradiction such as the decrease of economic growth rate and population, etc.