城市间房地产价格波动差异的动态分析

Dynamic Analysis of the Differences of Fluctuations of Real Estate Price Among Cities with Different Economic Levels

不同经济发展水平城市的房价波动存在着明显的差异。为探析造成这种差异的深层次原因,分别选取一、二、三线有代表性的城市作为样本,首先直观地分析了各类别城市之间房价的波动差异。然后针对不同类别城市分别建立了面板数据模型(Panel Data)和误差修正模型(ECM),深入分析造成房价波动差异的长期和短期原因。结果表明:收入对不同类别城市房价影响不同,并且对同一类别城市房价的长期和短期影响也不一样;实际利率对一线城市房价影响显著,而对二、三线城市房价影响不显著;经济发展水平越高的城市,房价由短期非均衡向长期均衡调整的速度越快。最后根据以上分析给出政策建议。

There exists obvious distinctions in the housing price fluctuation among cities with different economic levels. Taking some representative first - tier, second - tier and third - tier cities as examples, firstly, we analyze the different fluctuation characteristics of the different ranked cities qualitatively and then establish panel data model （Panel Data） and error correction model （ECM） respectively among the three kinds of cities. According to these two models, we can draw a conclusion of the factors affecting the house prices and its influence from short- term to long- term. The conclusion indicates that incomes have different effects on different kinds of cities; real interest rates have significant effects on the first- tier cities, but not on the second - tier or the third- tier cities. It is faster for the first - tier cities that the price of house regresses from volatility in short - term to equilibrium in long - term. Finally, we propose some policy suggestions.