基于2个不相关的不确定因素的一次性决策理论研究

A theoretical study of one-shot decision based on two irrelevant uncertain factors

针对决策问题中出现的多个不确定因素,研究2个不相关的不确定因素的一次性决策问题.在单一不确定因素的一次性决策基础上,首先得出2个不确定因素的可能性,然后提出焦点和最优方案的选择方法,给出2个不相关的不确定因素的一次性决策过程,最后以报纸经销商问题为例说明这样的决策过程.分析的结果表明提出的决策模型能够帮助决策者在2个不确定因素的情形下找出最优方案.

Considering that multiple uncertain factors are commonly encountered in decision - making problems, this paper focuses on the study of the one - shot decision problem based on two irrelevant uncertain factors. On the basis of one - shot decision based on a single uncertain factor, firstly, this paper obtains the possibility of two un- certain factors, then proposes the selection method of focus points and the best alternative, obtains the one - shot decision process based on two irrelevant uncertain factors, and finally, an example, which is a newsvendor problem, is used to illustrate the decision - making process. The results of the analysis show that the proposed decision model can help the decision maker in finding out the optimal alternative under two uncertain factors.