房产税与房价关系的实证研究

An Empirical Study on the Relationship between House Price and House Property Tax

将我国房产税试点改革视作一项自然实验,采用双重倍差(DID)模型,对房产税改革的政策效应进行评估,基于35个城市2006—2012年的面板数据,以重庆和上海为处理组,其他33个城市为对照组,采用动态系统广义矩估计方法对模型进行参数估计,实证结果表明,沪渝房产税与住宅商品房价没有表现出显著的负相关关系,房产税对房价的抑制作用有限;房产税税率过低,税基过窄,征收制度有待进一步完善。

The property tax pilot reform implemented in Shanghai and Chongqing can be seen as a natural experiment, this paper uses the panel data from 35 cities and the method of DID to analyze whether the policy has a negative effect on housing price. The empirical results show that the property tax and residential commodity prices did not show a significant negative cor- relation in Shanghai and Chongqing, the inhibitory effect of property tax on housing prices is limited; the property tax rate is too low, the tax base is too narrow, the collection system should be further improved.