日本经济长期低迷的新解说:基于供给的视角

A New Explanation on the Long-term Japanese Economic Downturn:Based on the Supply Perspective

针对20世纪90年代以来日本经济长期低迷的探讨很多,但大部分学者对其形成原因都是从需求的角度展开分析,认为此次日本经济长期萧条是通货紧缩态势下的国内需求不足造成的。因此,包括2012年底上台的安倍内阁在内,历届政府都不惜在财政赤字巨大化的严峻形势下,继续出台拉动内需的量化宽松政策以期待短时期内的经济复苏,但时至今日政策效果并不显著。显然,日本政府治理经济的政策并没有完全对症下药。此次造成日本经济长期低迷的主要原因其实不在需求一端,而是供给方面出了问题,即是由于建立在高科技平台上的"新供给"缺失造成的。

Although there are many literatures about the long‐term Japanese economic dow nturn since 1990s ,most researches explore the reasons from the perspective of demand .They conclude that the dow nturn is due to inadequate domestic demand under the situation of currency deflation .So every government ,including the Abe’s cabinet ,continues to take quantitative easing policy to drive domestic demand .They expect economic recovery in a short period of time .But the effect of this policy is not notable so far .Obviously ,the policy of governing economy of Japanese government is not totally symptomatic .We find that the main reason for the long‐term downturn lies in supply other than demand , that is , the deficiency of New Supply building on the platform of high‐tech causes the dow nturn .