高速公路最佳建设时机选择方法的研究

Study on Selection Method of Highway Optimal Construction Timing

高速公路建设时机对于促进区域经济发展,提高投资资金的使用价值有着重要的意义。目前,我国在高速公路建设项目的决策中往往注重效益的大小,而忽视了对最佳建设时机的选择。提出使用蒙特卡洛风险模拟法和分散算法求解高速公路建设项目在不确定条件下实现国民经济净现值最大的建设时机,并与项目在确定性条件下国民经济净现值大于0和国民经济净现值实现最大时的净现值进行对比。通过案例分析,结果表明,当目标函数为不确定条件下国民经济净现值最大时,能够实现项目投资效益的最大化。

Highway optimal construction timing plays an important role in facilitating development of regional economy and improving use value of investment capital. Currently, we have paid much attention to the benefits but ignored the selection of optimal construction timing in our domestic highway construction projects. This paper has proposed to apply Monte Carlo risk simulation method and distribution algorithm to work out the optimal construction timing of highway construction projects to realize maximum net present value of national economy under condition of uncertainty. Then make comparison with timing of the national economy net present value high than 0 and the maximum national economy net present value under project condition of certainty. Through case analysis, the results showed that when objective function was under condition of uncertainty and with the maximum national economy net present value, the project investment benefit would achieve its maximum value.