TOPSIS-模糊综合评判法在优选水文频率参数估计方法中的应用

The Application of the TOPSIS-Fuzzy Comprehensive Evaluation Method Used in the Method of Optimizing the Hydrologic Frequency Parameter Estimation

矩法、权函数法、数值积分单权函数法、数值积分双权函数法以及概率权重矩法等方法是水文频率参数初值估计的常用方法,可直接通过图解法主观判断计算出的参数值的优劣,却没有定量的评价准则。为了寻求良好的评判方法,将TOPSIS方法与模糊综合评判方法相结合,并与传统的TOPSIS-余弦法相比较发现,TOPSIS-模糊综合评判法具有较良好的评价性能。采用四种不同的评价准则,运用加权法对传统的参数估计结果进行定量分析,评价结果与适线法的直观效果相符合,该方法具有较严密的理论评价基础和合理的评价结果,可用于其他多目标评价方法中。

Hydrological frequency parameter is estimated by method of moment, weight function method, numerical integral single （or double） weight function method, probability weighted moment method and so on. These methods all have their own theoretical basis and have been used to calculate the parameters of distribution as initial values. The graphical method can be used to directly with the optimum line to judge the merits of parameters with no quantitative evaluation criteria. The TOPSIS method combined with fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method is compared with TOPSIS-cosine method to be found that the method in this article has good performance evaluation. The results of this study show that the eval- uation results conform to the optimal line method with four different evaluation criteria and the weighted method for quantitative analysis. The proposed method can be used in other multi-objective evaluation method with the strict evaluation theory.