基于FTA-BN的食品供应链安全风险预测模型

A Forecasting Model of Safety Risks in Food Supply Chains Based on FTA-BN

针对食品供应链安全风险预测问题,首先利用故障树分析方法建立了食品供应链安全问题的故障树模型,然后根据故障树向贝叶斯网络的转化规则,建立了食品供应链安全风险预测的贝叶斯网络模型。实例分析结果表明,综合利用故障树分析和贝叶斯网络方法,能实现对食品供应链整体及节点安全风险水平的有效预测,为食品供应链安全监管的实施提供决策支持。

In this paper, in view of the problems in the forecasting of the safety risks in food supply chains, we first used the fault-tree analysis（FTA） process to formulate the fault tree model of the safety issues of the food supply chains, then established the corresponding Bayesian network（BN） forecasting model, and at the end, through a case study; demonstrated that the FTA-BN process could effectively forecast the safety risk level of the food supply chains and their individual links.