博乐垦区土地利用/覆被变化及预测研究

Study on Land Use/Cover Change and the Prediction of Bole Reclamation Area

基于博乐垦区1990年8月、2003年8月和2010年8月的3期TM影像数据,定量分析了研究区近20a土地利用/覆被的数量变化和空间变化,以及各地类质心的空间变化趋势。在此基础上,采用马尔科夫链方程预测了研究区未来10a(2015—2025年)土地利用/覆被的演变趋势。结果表明:近20a来,研究区的土地利用/覆被变化显著:(1)居民点用地大幅度增加,主要由草地和未利用地转化而来。林地大幅度减少,转化成了草地。耕地和草地先增加后减少,但总体呈增加趋势。水域面积略有减少;(2)各类用地的质心变化:1990—2003年,质心偏移幅度较小。除居民点用地外,其余地类都在10km以内。但2003—2010年,各类用地的空间质心都发生了较大的偏移;(3)在保持人为影响因素不变的前提下,未来10a(2015—2025年)垦区居民点用地、耕地和草地将继续增加,而水域、林地和未利用地将继续减少,但是各类用地的变化幅度都将减小。

This paper quantitatively analyzed the spatial-temporal patterns of land use/cover change, and the spatial transfer trends of centroids of all land use classes in recent 20 years based on three TM images in Au- gusts, 1990, 2003 and 2010 of Bole reclamation area. We employed Markov chain equation to predict the evo- lution trend of LUCC in the coming 10 years（2015--2025）. Our results showed the LUCC of our study area changed significantly in recent 20 years. （1） the residential lands increased sharply, and were mainly trans- formed from grasslands and unused lands. Forestlands decreased greatly, and were converted into grass- lands. Farmlands and grasslands increased firstly, and decreased slightly later, but generally presented the increase trend, and the water areas reduced slightly; （2） during the period from 1990 to 2003, the amplitude of centroid skewing of our land use classes was small, specifically, except the residential land, the centroid skewing of the other land use classes was all within 10 km, but during the period from 2003 to 2010, the centroids of all land use classes occurred great migration; （3） under the conditions of constant anthropogenic influence, in the coming 10 years, the residential land, farmland and grassland will continue to increase, and the water area, forestland and unused land will continue to decrease, but the variation amplitude of all land use classes will decrease.