艾比湖流域气候变化及对地表水资源的影响

Impact of the Climate Change of Ebinur Lake Basin on Surface Water Resources

利用艾比湖流域逐月气温、降水数据,结合流域地表径流和艾比湖湖泊面积数据,分析了1961—2010年流域气候要素变化趋势和突变特征,探讨了气候变化对流域地表水资源的影响。结果表明:(1)近50a来艾比湖流域气温、降水均呈波动上升趋势,气候由暖干型向暖湿型转变。冬季升温对流域气温增幅贡献率大,气温在1995年发生突变。冬季降水量增幅明显,夏季只有温泉站点降水量增幅显著,降水量在1984年发生突变;(2)流域年均气温与径流量呈正相关,年降水量与径流量的变化呈显著同步性;(3)流域年平均气温与艾比湖面积大小关系复杂;年平均降水量与湖泊面积的变化趋势趋于同步,1996—1999年这种同步性更明显;(4)气候变化直接影响冰川伸缩与雪线升降,冰川数量和规模均逐渐减小,用水矛盾日益尖锐,影响绿洲社会经济发展。

Using data of monthly temperature, precipitation of Ebinur Lake Basin, and combining its overland runoff and lake area, we analyzed the variation trend and mutation characteristics of climate elements in Ebinur Lake basin from 1961 to 2010 and discussed the impact of the climate change on surface water resources. The results indicated that： （1） the temperature and precipitation in Ebinur Lake Basin both reflected a fluctuating up- ward trend in recent 50 years, with the climate changing from a warm-dry to warm-wet type, temperature rise in winter contributed to the temperature rise of Ebinur Lake Basin, the temperature mutated in 1995, precipitation showed remarkable increase in winter, this increase is only notable in hotspring in summer, precipitation mutated in 1984~ （2） annual mean temperature was positively correlated with runoff volume in Ebinur Lake Basin, variation of annual mean precipitation was remarkably synchronized with that of runoff vo[ume~ （3） it was complex between the higher annual mean temperature and area of Ebinur Lake Basin. The trends of the precipitation show good agreement with the lake area, especially the 1996--1999~ （4） climate change directly impacted the glacier scale and snow line height. The gradual decline of glacier scale and deficiency of water resources will affect the development of oasis social economy.