1991—2013年中国主板市场融资与GDP之间的经验测度——基于向量自回归模型的计量经济分析

An Empirical Study on Chinese Main Board Market Financing and GDP from 1991 to 2013——Econometric Analysis Based on the VAR Model

分析了1991—2013年中国主板市场融资和GDP的变化趋势,运用向量自回归模型对中国主板市场A股融资规模与经济增长之间的关系进行了经验测度。研究结果表明:1991—2013年,中国主板市场A股融资冲击对GDP表现为正向影响,冲击后的第10年对GDP变化的正向影响达到最大值,为0.300 1;尽管沪深交易所主板市场的A股融资规模增长速度超过了GDP的增长速度,但是A股市场的融资规模对GDP波动的贡献比例相对较小。显然,中国资本市场运行是积极的、有效的,A股融资规模的适度变化不会造成国民经济的波动。

The changing trends of Chinese main board market financing and GDP from 1991 to 2013 were analyzed and the VAR model was applied to explore the relationship between A share ginancing in Chinese main board market and GDP. The results showed that A share financing in Chinese main board market exerts a positive impact on GDP, whose maximum （0. 300 1） appeared in the tenth year. Through the growth rate of Chinese main board market financing in Shanghai and Shenzhen Stock Exchanges exceeds that of GDP, the contribution of A share financing in Chinese main board market to the fluctuations of GDP is comparatively small. It is obvious that China capital market is running actively and effectively, and the moderate changes of A share will not lead to the fluctuations of China＇s national economy.