浙江省奶牛布鲁氏病的到达时间的研究

The Arrival Time of Brucellosis In terms of Dairy Eow in Zhejiang Province

在我国,布鲁氏菌病被列为二类动物疫病。随着中国奶牛养殖的规模化经营,奶牛在城市间频繁调运,致使疫区广泛分布,所以研究疫病到达时间对疫病防控非常重要。本文以城市为斑块,建立了多斑块动力学模型,利用随机的方法给出疫病到达时间的一般表达式。以中国南方最大的奶牛基地——浙江省为例,结合实际调研的数据,验证了模型的合理性,并给出了杭州、宁波、金华、温州、台州、湖州、衢州这7个辖市的奶牛布病的到达时间,为布鲁氏菌病的防控提供了理论基础。

In our country,brucellosis is listed as the second class animal epidemics.As China＇s dairy farming scale management,frequent dispatching between cows in the city,the area is widely distributde,so the arrival time is very important for disease prevention and control of disease.Taking cities as plates,more plates dynamical models were established.By using the method of random,the general expression of the arrival time of disease were given.In southern China,took the largest dairy cows bases,zhejiang province as an example and combined with the actual survey data,the rationality of the model was verified.And the arrival time of brucellosis was given in terms of dairy cow in Hangzhou,Ningbo,Jinhua,Wenzhou,Taizhou,H uzhou,Quzhou.This study provides the theory basis for prevention and control of brucellosis.