ECMWF降雨集合预报在水库优化调度中的应用研究

Study of optimal reservoir operation with ECMWF ensemble precipitation forecasts

为了充分考虑降雨预报的不确定性,本文建立了基于降雨集合预报的径流描述模型,并在满足保证出力条件下,建立以水库在调度期内总发电量最大为目标的随机动态规划模型。以桓仁水库以上流域为研究实例,应用欧洲天气预报中心(ECMWF)的降雨集合预报信息进行水库优化调度。结果显示应用降雨集合预报信息的调度可提高发电量4%以上,表明利用降雨集合预报信息进行水库优化调度,对水库实际运行有一定的指导意义。

This paper develops a runoff description model using ensemble precipitation forecasts that considers adequately uncertainty in precipitation, and also an optimal operation model of stochastic dynamic programming that maximizes the total power generation of scheduling period under the constraint of firm power. In a case study of the basin upstream to the Huanren reservoir, its optimal operation was calculated by using the ensemble precipitation forecasts from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts （ECMWF）. Results show an increase of over four percent in power generation, demonstrating the practical value of ensemble precipitation forecasts to scheduling of reservoir operation.