基于可计算一般均衡模型的大型水电项目经济影响评价初探

Economic impact assessment of large-scale hydropower project based on computable general equilibrium model

多功能的大型水电项目对整个区域经济产生的影响,并不是各种影响的简单叠加,之间存在着此消彼长、相互制约、相互作用的复杂关系。影响的波及范围也通过国民经济产业链条、区域内外的社会经济联系进行传递。为此大型水电项目的经济影响评价,必须从国民经济系统的整体角度出发,全面系统评价其综合效益。本文从大型水电项目对区域经济影响路径与作用机制入手,运用多区域一般均衡模型,以上川江为例对大型水电项目的经济影响进行评价。评价结果给出的消费、投资、进出口、GDP、就业等多指标显示上川江水电项目对区域经济带动作用十分显著,影响程度呈现出沿项目中心区域逐级递减的态势。从多视角、多层次、多维度反映了水电项目的经济效益。

Economic impacts of large-size multi-functional hydropower project are complex and interactive, which are transferred via economic industrial chain and interregional economic linkage. Comprehensive assessment must take a perspective of integrated economic system. This paper presents a multi-regional computable general equilibrium （CGE） model for assessment on the project economic impacts from multi-dimension perspectives, and discusses its application to analysis of the impact mechanism and transfer path induced by hydropower development in the upper Chuan river. The results indicate that the hydropower projects in this valley has outstanding benefits to regional economy, which are reflected in various indicators such as consumption, investment, import, export, GDP, and employment. From a spatial perspective, the impacts descend along the distance from the oroiect location.