摘要
PM2.5对空气质量和能见度等有重要的影响,了解其变化趋势,对制定合理的治理机制具有现实意义.在传统的GM(1,1)模型的基础上,提高数据的光滑度,建立了改进的GM(1,1)模型,并利用MATLAB实现GM(1,1)模型算法.以石家庄市PM2.5浓度作为研究对象,以历史数据预测未来数据,并检验其精度.结果显示,石家庄市PM2.5浓度,在短期内仍将保持较高值,采取措施控制PM2.5浓度不容忽视.
PM2. 5 has an important effect on visibility and air quality etc. ,therefore,understanding its trends for the development of rational governance mechanism has the practical significance. In order to improve the prediction accuracy,based on the traditional GM（1,1）model,by increasing the smoothness of data,and u-sing MATLAB realization of GM（1,1）model algorithms,and the PM2. 5 concentrations of Shijiazhuang,the capital city of Hebei Province,as the research object,predict the future by making use of the historical data,and verify its accuracy. The prediction results show that the PM2. 5 concentrations in Shijiazhuang in the short term will remain high value;and taking soem measures to control the concentration of PM2. 5 cannot be ignored.
出处
《绵阳师范学院学报》
2015年第5期75-79,共5页
Journal of Mianyang Teachers＇ College
基金
河北省高等学校科学技术研究项目(Q2012122)
