基于Markov过程的核电公众风险沟通策略研究

Study on Strategy of Public Risk Communication in Nuclear Power Field Based on Markov Process

公众对核电的态度对核电的发展有着重要影响。当由于核事故造成公众对核电支持率下降时,核电企业通常会通过风险沟通和利益保障等方法来挽回公众对于核电的支持。本文基于Markov过程探寻核电领域最优的公众风险沟通策略,合理选择风险沟通的时间、频率和类型,得出最优应对策略。在风险感知周期过程中,选取适当节点进行风险沟通,可认为公众对核电态度的支持率变化呈Markov过程。同时,对不同状态下Markov链所对应的转移概率矩阵进行分析,对各种方案进行选择组合与影响因素灵敏度分析,得到了最佳的政策沟通策略。

The public attitude makes a great impact on the development of nuclear power. The nuclear enterprises always try to regain the support of public by risk com- munication and benefit insurance etc. when the nuclear accidents happened. Based on Markov process, the optimal strategy depends on the choice of the reasonable time, frequency and type of risk communication. The different transition probability matrixes at different statuses in a Markov chain and the sensitivity of influence factors were analyzed, and the optimal policies of communication strategy were determined.