滇池流域生态承载力及系统耦合效应剖析

ANALYSIS OF ECOLOGICAL CARRYING CAPACITY AND ITS SYSTEM COUPLING EFFECT IN DIANCHI LAKE BASIN

利用ENVI4.8和Arcgis9.3软件对2001-2010年的遥感影像数据进行处理和分析,计算得出各年份的生态承载力。结合相关年份的社会经济数据,同时根据滇池流域的实际情况提取18个分析指标,运用相关分析和回归分析方法,对滇池流域生态承载力以及其与生态环境系统、资源环境系统、社会经济系统3个子系统要素的耦合关系进行分析。结果表明：（1）2001-2010年滇池流域的总生态承载力和人均生态承载力呈快速下降趋势,降幅达37.3%;耕地生态承载力呈下降趋势最明显,下降幅度达52.61%,但建设用地的生态承载力上升幅度达27.08%。（2）滇池流域生态承载力与三大系统要素相关性较好,其耦合形态呈＂J＂、＂L＂型、＂U＂型和倒置的＂S＂型等。（3）对耦合形态的形成机理进行分析,其结果表明：城镇化、社会经济的发展以及流域内粗放型的经济增长方式对形成这种耦合形态的影响较大。

Ecological carrying capacity(EC)is a hot topic that has drawn much attention of domestic and foreign scholars to analyze the regional sustainable development from the perspective of interaction between ecological subsystem,resources and environment subsystem and socio-economic subsystem.We calculated the ecological carrying capacity of 2001-2010 by analyzing the remote sensing image data with ENVI4.8and Arcgis9.3.We combined relevant socio-economic data and selected 18 indicators according to the actual situation of the Dianchi Lake Basin.We used correlation analysis and regression analysis to analyze the ecological carrying capacity of the Dianchi Lake Basin and its coupling relationship with ecological subsystem,resources and environment subsystem and socio-economic subsystem elements.The results showed that:(1)The total EC and per capital EC of the Dianchi Lake Basin declined rapidly by37.3%from 2001 to 2010.The cultivated land EC declined remarkably by 52.61%,but the construction land EC went up constantly by 27.08%.(2)Ecological carrying capacity of the Dianchi Lake Basin and the three subsystem elements showed a significant correlation,and the coupling form between them presented different shapes,including'J'shape,'L'shape,'U'shape and inverted'S'shape.(3)The analysis of forming mechanism showed the advance of urbanization,rapid social and economic development caused a tremendous pressure on ecological systems,leading water carrying capacity beyond the affordability,and extensive style of economic growth in the basin has resulted in excessive consumption of resources and deterioration of the environment.The combination of these factors has significant influence on abovementioned coupling form.The results showed that resources and environment subsystem was the foundation,ecological environment subsystem was the core and the purpose was the development of socioeconomic subsystem in the socio-economic environment system of the Dianchi Lake Basin.Currently,the environmental pollution control has made great achievements.However the situation was still grim.Especially the water environmental problem is increasingly serious in the basin.To achieve sustainable economic and social development,the key point is to deal with the coordinate relations between ecosystem and economic development.