大中城市机动车保有量预警研究--以大连市为例

Research on the Early Warning of Vehicle Ownership of Large and Medium Cities——Dalian City as a Case Study

文章基于预警理论构建了机动车保有量预警警情体系，根据相关道路交通理论和标准设计了预警数学模型。选取辽宁省大连市作为研究对象，采取统计数据代入模型验证的实证研究方法，对主城区2005～2014年的路网饱和度进行计算，得到10年路网饱和度、机动车和道路增长率趋势及警情评价结果，说明该体系的预警是有效的。结果表明：2007-201O年间出现机动车保有量与路网容量背离现象的原因是缺乏预警机制和科学规划，提出机动车增长率应该限制在10％以下，路网容量供给应不低于5％，机动车保有量警限值应该保持在1.2以下。

This paper constructs an alarm system for early warning of vehicle population based on the early warning theory, and designs the warning mathematics model according to the relevant traffic theory and stand- ards. This paper selects Dalian City as the research object, and calculates the road network saturation of Dalian downtown areas from 2005 to 2014 by empirical research method with statistics into the model for verification. The growth rate trend of vehicles, road network saturation, and the alarm evaluation results of 10 years were obtained. The findings show that the early warning system is effective and the lack of early warning mechanism and scientific planning is the reason for the deviation of vehicle ownership and road capacity from 2007 to 2010. It is suggested that the vehicle growth rate should be limited to less than 10%, the supply of road network ca- pacity should not be less than 5 ~, and the alarm limit value of vehicle population should remain below 1.2.