脆弱性、风险承担网络与农村贫困研究--基于湖南10村调查的数据分析

Research on Vulnerability Risk,Risk Taking Network and Rural Poverty——Based on Data Analysis on 10 Villages in Hunan Province

农村贫困人口的脆弱性风险及其风险承担网络与贫困可能性问题研究,是近几年学术界研究的焦点问题。基于中国中部10村实地调研所取得的数据库,采用Logistic Regression(LR)模型分析了农村贫困人口的脆弱性风险以及风险承担网络对贫困发生可能性的影响,并同时检验VRP假设和RTNP假设在解释中国农村贫困问题的有效性。研究发现,农村贫困与农村居民的脆弱性风险因素中健康风险、财产风险、环境生态风险有着显著性的关系。从风险承担网络角度来看,基于正式支持网络所带来政策效应以及基于非正式支持风险承担网络对其贫困发生的可能性也有显著的影响。

In recent years, reseachers are focusing on the issues including relationship between vulnerability risk and risk taking network of the rural poor population and poverty possibility. Based on the data collected from 10 villages in Hunan Province, this study analyses the influence of the rural poor population vulnerability risk and risk taking network on the pov- erty possibility by using the Logistic Regression （LR） model, and tests VRP and RTNP hypothesis and its effectiveness on explaning the Chinese rural poverty problems. The study found that rural poverty was obviously related with vulnerability risk factors of rural residents in health risk, property risk, environmental and ecological risk. In terms of risk bearing net- work, the policy effect based on the formal support network and the network based on an informal support had a significant impact on the possibility of poverty.