市场比较法的不确定性传播研究

The Uncertainty Propagation of the Sales Comparison Approach

研究目的:为了提高公信力,有必要对市场比较法进行可靠性研究,用定量的指标对该方法自身的优劣程度进行评估。研究方法:采用误差理论中的误差传播律来定量研究市场比较法整个估价流程对最后评估结果的影响程度,包括因比较案例的选择、交易情况修正、期日修正、区域因素修正、个别因素修正以及多个比准价格的加权平均所存在着的诸多不确定性因素最后导致估值的不确定性程度,同时,在比准价格的加权平均中,通过各比准价格的不确定性程度来定权。研究结果:应用误差理论,得出估值的不确定度,可作为评估地价评估值的质量指标。研究结论:应用可靠性理论可以衡量市场比较法的不确定性程度。

There exist many limitations and defects in theory and application of the sales comparison approach. It is filled with uncertainty of the whole process from comparable property selection, adjustment of transaction circumstance, time, region-and individual-factor to weighted mean of multiple appraisal prices of comparable cases, which causes uncertainty of appraisal value and weakens the reliability of appraisal to a great extent. To monitor and regulate the appraisal process, it is essential to estimate the appraisal accuracy with some indicators. In this paper, we use error propagation law of error theory to estimate uncertainty of appraisal results, which are caused by uncertainty of above factors. The precision estimation may improve the reliability and credibility of appraisal results. Meanwhile, during calculating weighted mean of multiple appraisal prices of comparable unites, weight is determined according to precision of appraisal prices of comparable unites, which makes the appraisal results scientific, reasonable and objective, and perfects real estate appraisal theory.