中美贸易失衡的均衡、错位及其矫正

The Equilibrium,Misalignment and Its Correction of Imbalanced China-US Trade

基于中方与美方视角,对中美贸易失衡的均衡、错位及其矫正进行实证研究.实证研究表明:中美基本面经济要素对中美双边贸易失衡有重要长期和短期影响;2007-2011年,中美贸易失衡的均衡水平呈下降趋势;1986-2011年,美中贸易失衡的均衡水平呈下降趋势;1986-2011年,中美贸易失衡的错位程度不严重.政策启示是:不应简单化地将美国挑起针对中国的汇率和贸易争端归因于政治动机;加强中美宏观经济政策协调;加强国内宏观经济政策协调;坚持人民币对美元小幅度升值.

Based on China＇s and US perspective, This paper studied the equilibrium, mis- alignment and its correction of imbalanced China-US trade.The study shows： Chinese and American economic fundamentals have important long-term and short-term effect on im- balanced China-US trade.During the period of 2007 to 2011, the equilibrium imbalanced China-US trade appear decreasing trend. During the period of 1986 to 2011, the equilibrium US-China trade appear decreasing trend. During the period of 1986 to 2011, the misalign- ment of imbalanced China-US trade is not severe. The conclusion implies in policy that：Should not regard simply the exchange rate and trade disputes that US provoked against China as due to political motives.Strengthen Sino US macroeconomic policy coordination.Strengthen the domestic macroeconomic policy co- ordination.Adhere to the appreciation of RMB/USD real exchange rate moderately.