水电工程应急能力模糊可变评估方法研究

Fuzzy Variable Assessment on Emergency Ability of Hydropower Engineering

针对水电工程应急能力评估的问题,综合运用可变模糊集理论,提出水电工程应急能力模糊可变评价方法.首先,通过分析水电工程应急能力构成要素,构建应急培训、应急预案与演练、危险源辨识与排查、应急保障体系、监测预警、现场处置等六类评价指标;其次,通过定义应急能力等级评价的模糊可变问题,分别计算样本指标对标准区间的级别相对隶属度和综合相对隶属度,构建应急能力模糊可变评价模型;然后,采用可变模糊迭代方法确定客观权向量,融合决策者的经验和主观偏好,调整评价权重.最后,以溪洛渡工程为例,表明方法综合使用主客观权重,提高了评价的可靠性与科学性.

For emergency capability assessment on hydropower engineering, a fuzzy variable assess- ment method is proposed by using variable fuzzy sets theory for reference. Firstly, the evaluation index is divided into emergency training, contingency plans and exercises, hazard identification and screen- ing, emergency security system, monitoring and early warning, scene disposal according to component analysis of emergency capability. Secondly, comparing to the standard range, the level relative mem- bership degree and comprehensive relative membership degree of sample are calculated separately and emergency capability level is identified with the fuzzy variable model. Then, the variable fuzzy iteration method is adopted to determine objective weight vector and the evaluation weights are adjusted to the experience and subjective preference. Finally, the case of Xiluodu project shows that the proposed method with combination weight could improve the accuracy and scientific of evaluation result.