数学建模方法在风电功率预测中的应用

APPLICATION OF MATHEMATICAL MODELING METHODS IN WIND-POWER PREDICTION

分别利用数学建模方法中的BP神经网络、灰色预测GM(1,1)、简单移动平均法和自回归滑动平均(ARMA)方法进行风功率预测。首先简单介绍各方法的原理,其次对实测数据进行测试,最后对各方法的优缺点进行分析,从而为风电并网以及电网的合理调度提供科学依据。

With respect to wind power forecast, we used prediction methods in mathematical modeling to predict the output respectively, including BP neural network, grey model GM （1, 1）, simple moving average method and ARMA （Auto-Regressive and Moving Average Model） method. Firstly, the principle of each method was introduced concisely and then the results were examined by real-measured data. Finally, we analyzed the advantages and disadvantages of each method, thus provided scientific basis for wind power grid-connection and reasonable scheduling.