中国的经济增长模型和总量生产函数适用性研究--本土与跨国途径两个维度的视角

What Factors of Production Determine Economic Growth?

要研究中国的宏观经济,首先需要确定适用于中国的经济增长模型和总量生产函数,但这方面研究迄今还很欠缺。该文运用基于数据生成过程的检验方法,研究经济增长的模型选择问题。结果表明:中国宏观经济具有两大特征:资本边际生产率非递减、投资率具有增长效应;所以,AK类型的经济增长模型适用于中国经济。对生产函数的检验结果显示,劳动力、教育年限和显性人力资本不能解释经济增长,只有物资资本和隐性人力资本可以解释经济增长;引进人力资本后进一步证明了这一结论。

A precondition for the study of China＇s economic growth problems is to find the economic growth model explaining China ＇s actual situation and to determine which factors of production determine China＇s economic growth. We propose test methods based on the data generation process, and study the specification of economic growth model. The result shows that China＇s economy has two types of characteristics： namely, non- decreasing marginal productivity of capital, and the rate of investment that has a positive association with the rate of economic growth. AK growth model is suitable to China＇s economy. In explaining economic growth, the results from productivity function show that labor, the variables of years of education and conspicuous human capital are not significant; AK productivity function is effective, adding up human capital variable could increase the explaining power of the model.