中国36个大城市相对消费价格指数测算——兼对国内宾大效应的实证分析

The Estimation of Relative Consumer Price Index and the Empirical Studies of the Subnational Penn Effect

此文以一种创新性的测算方法,重新估算了中国36个大中城市的相对消费价格指数。该方法矫正了现有文献的三大偏差:1)样本数据中市场化服务品的代表样本不足,2)使用的消费权重严重失真,以及3)样本数据分类与计算权重不匹配,从而得到了更为准确、合理的测算结果,由此计算出的城市实际收入水平也更为可靠。基于这些测算结果,此文发现,唐翔(2008,2010)提出的"国内宾大效应"在中国的确存在,即人口规模、价格水平、名义收入、实际收入、人力资本等五个指标在中国城市间具有显著的正相关关系。此文的结论、方法和测算结果对于中国的区域经济、城市经济、房地产市场等多个领域的学术研究和政策实践都有重要的参考价值。

We estimate relative consumer price levels and real per capita income for 36 major Chinese cities, using an innovative method purposely designed to rectify the three main defects of the existing literature, including 1） the under-- representation of marketized services in the sampling data, 2） biased expenditure weights, and 3）a mismatch between sampling data grouping and assigned expenditure weights. Our estimation results exhibit the ＂subnational Penn effect＂ as defined by Tang （2008, 2010）, i.e. strong inter--city correlations among population size, the relative price level, per capita nominal and real income, and human capital stock, thereby showing that the theoretical model of inter--city price dispersion proposed by the same article is applicable in China. Our conclusion, methodology, and estimation results have important implications for various aspects of the Chinese economy including the regional, urban and real--estate economy.