人口的年龄结构对消费率的影响研究——基于中国省际面板数据的实证分析

The Impact of Age Structure of Population on Consumption rate—Empirical Analysis Based on China's Provincial Panel Data

该文通过构建人口的年龄结构对消费率的影响计量模型,用中国2000-2012年的省际面板数据进行实证分析,结果表明人口的年龄结构对消费率的影响并不稳定:总体上,少年人口(0-14岁人口)比重的上升对消费率有正向影响,而老年人口(65岁以上人口)比重的上升对消费率有负面影响。另一方面,经济发展程度越高的省份,其消费率越低,这部分地反映了消费率在经济发展过程中的客观规律。而收入因素对消费率影响较大且在中国的东、中、西地区有较为明显的地区差异,具体而言,中西部地区的消费率更多地受到收入份额的影响而东中部地区的消费率更多地受到收入分配的影响。

On the basis of existing paper, combined with the current research, this paper adds new views to construct the model of how the age structure of population affects consumption rate in China. We include the index constructed from the per capita GDP of different provinces, which can be used to measure the level of economic growth, and factors to indicate the income level and distribution. Then the empirical analysis is conducted with the provincial panel data of China from 2000 to 2012. According to the empirical results, the age structure of population＇s impact on consumption rate is unstable. On the whole, the percentage of young population （aged between 0--14 years old） has a positive effect on the consumption rate while the percentage of old population （aged above 65 years old） has a negative one. Meanwhile, the results show that the higher the degree of economic growth of one province at the national level is, the lower its consumption rate will be. This finding partly reflects the objective rule of how the consumption rate changes among the economic development. Also, the income factor has a great effect on the consumption rate with a distinct regional difference in the east, middle and west area of China. Specifically, the impact of income level is larger in the middle and west area while the impact of income distribution is more obvious in the east and middle area.