中国制造业贸易流量影响因素研究

近年来,随着中国经济的发展,制造业贸易呈现出快速增长的趋势,在我国对外贸易中所占的比重不断增大。文章通过构建扩展的引力模型,选取中国制造业贸易最主要的56个贸易伙伴,对影响1990年以来中国制造业贸易流量影响因素进行实证分析,发现制造业增加值、人口因素、人均收入水平以及加入世贸组织,是影响中国制造业贸易流量的主要因素。本文试图运用引力模型来解释中国与主要贸易伙伴的制造业贸易模式,找出影响中国制造业出口流量和流向的主要因素,从而为改善中国制造业的贸易绩效提供可供参考的研究依据。。

In recent years, the trade of manufacturing industry has kept a rapid growth with the development of Chinese economy. Its proportion in China＇ s commodity export is becoming larger and larger. The article carries on an empirical study by building a gravity model to observe the main factors influencing China＇ s manufacturing trades since 1990. In the model, we select 56 economic partners which have a close trade relations with China in manufacturing trade. The empirical results show that values added of industry, population, average per capita income and WTO are the main factors to affect China＇ s manufac- turing trade flow, while distance still plays a significantly negative role. Thereafter, combined with the empirical analysis, we make a suggestion for promoting the development of Chinese manufacturing trade.