机器人替代劳动力的均衡分析

Equilibrium Analysis of Machine Substituting for Labor

世界工业化进程实际就是机器替代人的过程,只不过这一进程在1980年代前后发生了"逆袭",中国凭借丰富的劳动力资源,成功嵌入世界产业链,成为一个新的世界制造业中心。然而,2010年以后面对劳动力成本持续攀升,制造商们不得不将目光再次转回机器身上,只不过这次是机器人。无论如何定义,机器人也还是机器,是资本、技术要素载体。机器人在何时、多大程度上、以何种方式替代劳动力,答案应该是资本、技术和劳动力要素市场均衡机制作用的结果,这种结果对中国维持世界制造业中心地位,对就业岗位增减可能诱发的社会动荡,都是一个巨大变数。

The process of world industrialization is actually the process of machine substituting for labor, merely this process had a ＂counterattack＂ in 1980s. By virtue of its rich resources, China successfully implants into the world indus- trial chain and becomes a new manufacturing center of the world. However, facing continuous rising of labor costs, man- ufacturers have to choose machine as an alternative to relieve the pressure coming from labor costs again, this time is the robot. No matter how defined, the robot is still a machine which contains capital elements and technical elements. The re- sult of capital, technology and labor market ~s equilibrium process influences the way and the degree how robots substitute for labor, of course, the result may bring huge impact on the maintaining of position of China＇s manufacturing center and the social instability of employment environment.