管理者认知偏差、业务转型与企业绩效——基于中国上市公司的实证检验

Managerial Cognitive Bias, Business Transformation and Corporate Performance——Evidence from Chinese Listed Companies

基于“转型动机一战略选择一转型绩效”的研究范式，选取200l～2010年期间的中国上市公司为样本，重点从行为金融学视角检验了管理者认知偏差对企业业务转型战略及转型绩效的影响。研究结果表明：管理者的过度自信和过度乐观是诱发企业业务转型的重要因素，当企业拥有充裕的现金流时，他们更加热衰于业务转型，而且投资规模也更大；过度自信的管理者倾向于同时采取内部培育和并购两种转型策略，而过度乐观的管理者则更加偏好激进的并购方式。联立方程模型的研究结果表明，过度自信的管理者所实施的业务转型有助于提高企业的财务绩效和市场价值，而过度乐观的管理者所实施的业务转型将导致企业的财务绩效和市场价值下降。

Employing the paradigm of ＂transformation motivation--strategic choice--transformation performance＂ , the authors inves- tigated the impact of managerial cognitive bias on transformation strategy and performance using the data of Chinese listed companies from 2001-2010. The results show that managerial overconfidence and overoptimism are the inducing factors of firms＇ business transformation, and that when enterprises have sufficient cash flow, they are more likely to invest in business transformation on a larger scale. Specifically, overconfident managers tend to adopt internal cultivation and mergers and acqu!sitions simultaneously, whereas overoptimistic managers are likely to go into mergers and acquisitions mode. Moreover, our results show that whereas business transformations conducted by overconfident managers help improve firms＇ financial performance and market value, transformations conducted by overoptimistic managers reduce both.