产业结构演化影响因素分析

Analysis on the Influencing Factors of Industrial Structure Evolution

本文从社会需求、资源供给、技术进步、经济环境和政策环境五个方面选取变量,分析了其对三次产业产值占GDP的比重的影响,采用决策试验和评价试验方法筛选影响因素中的原因因素,运用分位数回归方法分析各个原因因素在产业结构不同状况下的作用强度。结果表明,固定资产投资结构、劳动生产率、高新技术产业产值比重、GDP增长率、R&D支出比重、教育财政支出比重及税收占GDP比重为原因因素,并且第一产业固定资产投资比重、R&D支出比重、第三产业固定资产投资比重分别对三个产业的产值比重产生的影响最大。

The process of the industrial structure evolution is the result of a large number of factors related to the industrial structure in- teract with each other. Variables were chosen from the social demand, resource supply, technological progress and economy environ- ment and policy environment to analyze the effect of the causal factors on the proportion of three industrial output value accounted for GDP in the process of Cbina＇s industrial structure. The DEMATEL method was used to select the causal factors, and quantile regression method was used to analyze the effect intensity of various factors under different conditions of the industrial structure. The results showed that the structure of fixed asset investment, labor productivity, the high-tech industry output value proportion, the growth rate of GDP, R＆D expenditure proportion, education expenditure proportion and the proportion of tax accounted for GDP were the causal factors. And the correlation degree between the fixed assets in primary industry and the primary industry output value proportion, R＆D expenditure proportion and the secondary industry output value proportion, the fixed assets in tertiary industry and the tertiary industry output value proportion were the best.