大电网充裕度评估的蒙特卡洛方法实现及比较

Realization and Comparison of Monte Carlo Methods in Bulk Power System Adequacy Assessments

比较分析非序贯蒙特卡洛方法和序贯蒙特卡洛方法在大电网充裕度评估的应用.介绍了非序贯和序贯蒙特卡洛方法进行大电网充裕度评估的具体实现步骤.分析了系统最优负荷削减模型的优化求解算法.以RBTS和IEEE RTS系统为例,采用非序贯、序贯蒙特卡洛进行状态选择,分别采用单纯形法、内点法计算系统的最优负荷削减量.算例结果表明,同非序贯蒙特卡洛方法相比,序贯蒙特卡洛方法内存需求量较大、收敛速度更慢;对于复杂的大规模系统,内点法的求解速度比单纯形法效率更高.

This paper compares and studies the application of non-sequential and sequential Monte Carlo methods in bulk power system adequacy assessment. Then the concrete realization steps of such assessment are introduced and optimal algorithms for load curtailment are analyzed. Take RBTS system and IEEE RTS system for example. Non-sequential and sequential Monte Carlo methods are used to select conditions. And optimal load decrement of the two systems is calculated using simplex method and interior point method. The results indicate that compared to non-sequential Monte Carlo method, sequential Monte Carlo method needs more CPU time and converges more slowly; the calculation speed of interior point method is faster than that of the simplex method for complex and large-scale power network.